A spreadsheet-based tool that will assist revenue managers in making demand forecasts is now available from Cornell's Center for Hospitality Research. The tool, 'Revenue Management Forecasting Aggregation Analysis Tool', was developed by Gary Thompson, a professor at the Cornell School of Hotel Administration.
"The key point here is to determine the aggregation level of the forecast," Thompson explained. "Hotel revenue managers usually forecast arrivals for each day, for each length of stay, and for each rate class. For each level of aggregation, the tool will evaluate three different methods of forecasting, two of which use a wide range of parameter values. Based on whichever of five error measurements is selected, this tool will show which forecast method is best, and rank-order the others."
The tool involves a series of worksheets that are formatted to allow hotel revenue managers to plug in their own historical data. The tool is limited to seven lengths of stay and five rate classes.
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