Two waves and nearly two years of curtailed operations later, the world is now slowly and steadily moving towards the actual new normal. At such a juncture, the outbreak of Omicron, the new variant of the COVID-19 virus has been causing a lot of concern. However, as the WHO as well as the US President Joe Biden have stated, the need of the hour is to be concerned and watchful, but not to panic.
First of all, there is not yet any clear picture on whether the new variant is actually as dangerous as the strains that caused the earlier waves. Despite a lot of experts having the opinion that it is quite capable of spreading fast, there is almost no evidence to prove that it is anywhere as life-threatening as the earlier ones. Therefore, we need to take a pragmatic approach and compare the situations prevalent at the time of the earlier waves to the current situation while forecasting the Omicron impact.
When the first wave struck, most countries didn’t even realise how dangerous it was until the situation reached catastrophic proportions. Since nobody knew what had to be done or what was being dealt with, blanket global travel bans were put in place to keep people at home as the authorities scampered to devise strategies and deploy resources. Similarly, even when the second wave struck, the vaccination drives were yet to properly begin, and that’s one of the main contributors to the unfortunate loss of lives that took place.
A NEW REALITY
Today, the situation is completely different.
Yes, there is a variant out there and the risk of a third-wave is very real, but, adherence to COVID-19 protocols instead of going back to the ‘complete lockdowns’ is likely to be a better idea. When lockdowns are imposed, the interstate and international connectivity breaks down completely. From a travel and tourism industry perspective, such a move could be easily avoided by stricter enforcement of protocols and increasing the pace of vaccination as well as research on the new variant.
Instead of completely banning travel movement, the better step at present might be to step up testing. Operators whether they are airlines, surface transportation operators, cab services, or hotels, have all deployed technologies and measures related to hygiene, social distancing and screening of passengers/guests on premises. As the Omicron threat looms, most of the organised sector players have already started enforcing the pandemic protocols strongly.
If the Omicron cases surge and scenarios like the earlier waves start unfolding then a full-fledged travel ban might make sense. Even in that scenario, there is a silver lining that the existing protocols, vaccination and other such steps will ensure that the containment is faster, less lives are lost and resumption of travel movement is faster than the last two waves.
NEWER NORMS
The cancellation of flight operations internationally or sealing of borders by many countries is more of a pre-emptive measure and that is likely to result in a prevention of the third wave. It might also ensure that complete travel restrictions such as the pan-India lockdowns might not be needed for domestic travel movement.
Other measures such as stronger emphasis on vaccination and bringing the unvaccinated populations under the coverage as well as stricter checking of vaccination certificates/testing of unvaccinated/partially vaccinated travellers are likely to be more
effective. In the short term, reimposing bans such as limiting the number of people in social gatherings, mask protocols and reducing the number of passengers on board flights/trains and buses is also going to be helpful in curbing the spread.
Imposing full-fledged global lockdown at this juncture might be an unbalanced and outsized response to a threat which is currently more of a speculation based on past experiences. Things have changed, and there is every reason to believe that the world of travel and tourism can survive the Omicron scare with heightened hygiene and social distancing measures. Even authorities across India are not jumping the gun as of now and have adopted a watchful approach that is aimed at helping the industry survive and the travellers safe.